2025 was the year supply chain leaders stopped talking about “disruptions” in the abstract and started asking a sharper question: how do we plan under structural uncertainty and still grow profitably? The numbers behind this shift are sobering, but they show exactly where better demand planning, inventory optimization and S&OP can move the needle.
184 billion reasons to rethink planning
Global supply chain disruptions are draining an estimated 184 billion USD per year in lost revenue, expedited logistics and raw‑material volatility. For individual companies, a single major disruption can erase up to 42 % of annual EBITDA if the network is not diversified or agile.
On top of that, new tariff regimes and economic “statecraft” put 20–30 % of EBIT margins at risk across manufacturing sectors, forcing network redesigns, new sourcing strategies and re‑thought inventory buffers. The cost of getting planning wrong has become a board‑level concern, not just an operational headache.
Demand planning: from guessing to probabilities
Demand planning has quietly become one of the highest‑ROI levers in the supply chain tech stack. Companies that implemented AI‑driven forecasting in 2025 report forecast accuracy improvements of roughly 30–50 % versus traditional techniques. In more stable segments, modern AI engines can deliver 80–95 % forecast accuracy for large parts of the portfolio, giving planners a tighter baseline for inventory and capacity decisions.
Reality, however, remains challenging. Typical weighted MAPE in many consumer sectors still sits around 25–40 %, and can exceed 50 % for new, seasonal or promotion‑driven SKUs. That gap between “what’s possible” and “what most teams achieve” is exactly where focused demand planning technology, structured training and expert consulting turn better forecasts into better service levels, safety stocks and margin.
S&OP/IBP: strategy on spreadsheets
S&OP and IBP should be the control tower that turns demand signals into aligned decisions on inventory, capacity and financial targets. Yet a 2025 survey of more than 320 S&OP/IBP experts found that 77 % of organizations still operate at levels 1–2 on a five‑level maturity scale, meaning their process is mostly reactive and supply‑driven. Broader industry assessments confirm that most companies cluster between levels 1 and 3, while truly integrated IBP remains rare.
Despite this, 81 % of companies continue to run their S&OP process primarily in spreadsheets. That mismatch, complex, cross‑functional decisions managed in tools designed for personal productivity, explains why many S&OP cycles feel like “data wrestling” instead of scenario‑based decision making. For most organizations, the opportunity is clear: move to technology‑enabled, scenario‑driven S&OP where demand, inventory and financials are consistently aligned and guided by robust models, education and expert support.
Structural shifts: resilience has a price tag
Policy and geopolitics have made resilience an economic trade‑off, not a slogan. Analysis in 2025 showed that reshoring production simply to reduce import concentration could cut real global GDP by more than 5 %, with individual OECD economies facing losses of 3.2–13.1 %. Fully “de‑globalizing” supply chains is therefore economically unrealistic, even if it appears attractive from a risk perspective.
At the same time, reducing trade barriers in supply‑chain‑related services could lower trade costs by 5–14 %, creating headroom to invest in smarter planning, better buffers and more flexible capacity. Combined with rising tariffs and shifting trade lanes, this raises the bar for scenario‑based planning: multiple sourcing options, differentiated service levels and dynamic inventory strategies need to be tested and updated frequently, not once a year.
What this means for 2026
Taken together, the 2025 numbers tell a clear story: disruptions and tariffs have turned planning quality into a direct driver of EBITDA; AI can dramatically improve forecast accuracy, but only when embedded in robust demand planning and S&OP processes; and most companies are still early in their maturity journey, running critical cycles on spreadsheets.
For organizations looking ahead, the practical agenda is straightforward: invest in dedicated planning technology instead of stretching spreadsheets; build forecasting and inventory skills through targeted courses; and redesign S&OP into a truly integrated, scenario‑driven process supported by expert guidance. In a world where 184 billion USD is lost to disruption every year, the companies that treat planning as their operating system—not an afterthought—will be the ones that protect margins, grow and surprise their markets.
